No one asked us to do a second round of predictions. But no one asked us to make the first lot either.
Winners:
Alex Crocker: Favourites are favourites for a reason. It’s their home World Cup; they look in excellent shape; and they are simply Brazil – which is as good enough reason to back them as any. But, this niggle keeps coming back and nothing is getting rid of it. Argentina. They’ve got absurdly talented players who work incredibly well together. The big names are largely the same as 2010, it’s just that they’ve improved. Oh – and Maradona isn’t manager anymore, which is always conducive to any football team that might want to use actual tactics. What better motivation is there for Argentina, than to really upset their biggest rivals at their home World Cup?
Will Donovan: I’m going to have Argentina narrowly edging out Brazil. It’s pretty close between them, and they’re both sides capable and more than worthy of winning it in any year, but if both top their groups and meet in the final I think it’s going to be edged by the Argentinians. A stunning array of talent at their peak, and yet there seems to be oddly little pressure on them compared to their great rivals – possibly because if they top their group they could expect arguably the easiest route to the semi final you could hope for in this draw. A team in light blue and white stripes broke Brazil’s hearts in the final the last time they hosted it… (ok, it wasn’t technically the final. And it turns out they weren’t wearing blue and white stripes then. But I’m too lazy to change my lazy comparison).
Golden boot:
AC: One of those Argentinean lot up the top end of the pitch: Higuaín; Agüero; or Messi. They’re in a group where they really should be able to get some goals. Bosnia, Iran and Nigeria are not bad sides (they did qualify for the World Cup if nothing else), but the gulf in class is probably going to be apparent for all to see. If Argentina ends up winning the whole thing they’ll do it by scoring goals. In the absence of Falcao, Jackson Martínez is Colombia’s biggest goal threat and he’ll get a fair few. Frankly though, it’s all a little bit futile and the Golden Boot winner will be shared between six different players who all scored four goals and it’ll go to a some unselfish player who got a couple of assists as well.
WD: Fewer goals are scored at World Cups every time, and the number of goals which win the Golden Boot comes down too. Fred will play down the middle for Brazil and should get enough matches to get a good total, but I think this could be wrapped up before the semi finals. Edin Džeko knows a thing or two about scoring a lot of goals against average sides, and he’s got two chances in the group to do just that. If France have another of their poor group stages and don’t finish top there’ll be another one in the quarter finals too. And if they do meet a stronger side, he’s not bad at scoring against them either. He’s the kind of striker who doesn’t consider his work done after he’s got the first goal, and those easy matches could take him past the five goals that Müller won it with in 2010. His hold up play could get him the assists which edged the German past the others tied on five.
Golden ball:
AC: Ángel di María is going to outstanding and integral to everything good about Argentina. He’s one of those bizarre players – perennially overlooked because of the esteemed company he keeps. At International level he plays in a team that features Messi, whilst at club level he plays with Cristiano Ronaldo and the world’s most expensive player (Bale). This season (in particular) though, his performances for Madrid have been utterly glorious. He was unquestionably Man of the Match in the Champions League final – and was just sensational during one of the best games of the season, between two of the best club sides in the World (El Clásico). If he plays as well as he can, then he’ll probably be the most important player at the World Cup (whether he gets the credit is another thing). It’s largely dependent on which team has a great tournament, so with this in mind I’m going to suggest Thiago Silva as well. Should Brazil do well (they should) then he’ll be a huge reason why. Imperious is a word that should appear near the Brazilian captain’s name wherever possible. Oh and a mention of Alexis Sánchez – just because.
WD: I’ll back Argentina firmly: if they win it, of course Messi will be the key. Outside chance of it being Di Maria, who is a much more important player than he sometimes gets credit for. I’ll also go for Paul Pogba as young player of the tournament: a key player for Juventus is now a key player for France, and if he deals with the pressure (he picked up a very silly red card for two rash tackles in a minute in a 2013 friendly against Spain where he was otherwise excellent) he’s going to shine.
Dark horses:
AC: Fun fact (it’s not fun) – the term dark house originated from horse racing. This is sort of what everyone knew anyway, but it’s nice to have some clarity. Anyway, it’s a vague term when talking about the World Cup which is open to interpretation. Chile could quite realistically win the whole damn thing. They appear geared up to qualify from what appears to be the most difficult group – and then who knows? The second round could conceivably see them facing Brazil and if they were to win that, going all the way really isn’t that far beyond them. They have an incredibly attacking side with some outstanding players (most notably Arturo Vidal and Alexis Sánchez) and crucially – are an incredibly cohesive outfit.
WD: As a bit of an outside bet: France. A side who have underperformed with the great players they’ve had in the last few tournaments, they still have a lot of great players (some with experience, some just coming through) and played very well in parts of qualifying. In between the parts where they weren’t playing particularly well. They’ve a good coach who has a few different ideas of how to play, they have no obvious weak areas in the squad, and they’ve got rid of the two players you’d most like to punch in the face if you were confident you’d get away with it. They’ve got a chance of not only avoiding completely humiliating themselves, but of quite a strong showing.
Surprise package:
AC: Switzerland and Colombia could really get quite far this year and either side could quite realistically make it all the way to the Semi Final stage (although the Quarters are most likely). Both have reasonable groups from which they should progress and potentially reasonable fixtures in the second round. Colombia finished second in the CONMEBOL qualifying only to Argentina and Switzerland went through their UEFA qualifying group undefeated. Qualifying isn’t the be all and end all, but hell – it’s hugely indicative of two very good sides.
WD: Colombia, who qualified brilliantly and have plenty of striking talent to replace the injured Falcao. They don’t seem to have been talked about very much, but the draw’s set up with the potential for an impressive march to the quarter finals, where they’ll face a big side and either go home with their heads held high or be the most surprising South American side in the semis.
Biggest disappointment (player and team):
AC: Netherlands will probably get knocked out in the Group Stages or the Second Round should they make it that far. However, given the- entirely understandable – hype surrounding Belgium, should they be knocked out in the Second Round that would probably be a disappointment. The most disappointing player will be Rooney. The biggest disappointment has to be the absence of some of the world’s best players for various reasons: Reus; Ibrahimović; Ribéry; Mario Gómez; Falcao… It’s all very sad and pessimistic, but the word disappointment is inherently downbeat.
WD: It’s a dull answer, but after France and Italy collapsed so spectacularly last time, and the Netherlands failed in the groups in Euro 2012, I don’t think there’s going to be such a major side to disappoint their fans this year. With their key players past their peak or recovering from exhausting seasons, I can’t see Ivory Coast (or Cote D’Ivoire if you’re reading this from behind a moustache) performing well, and I do wonder whether Japan could sneak past them to make this another World Cup where they don’t get through the group. Yaya Toure and Didier Drogba would thus be obvious candidates to disappoint, but I’ll go for Diego Costa. Coming back from injury and playing a very difficult role up front for a side who don’t create many chances for forwards or even score many goals may mean he becomes a scapegoat for Spain failing to defend their title.
Who’ll play their way into a big move:
AC: Back in 2010, there seemed like any number of players who could seize the opportunity on the big stage. And hell, some of them did. This time around it kind of feels like all the new stars are already at the big clubs. Ricardo Rodríguez of Switzerland could probably move to somewhere bigger than Wolfsburg – but that’s probably due to a pressing need for top level fullbacks in world football. Eduardo Vargas of Chile could shine and start to push his name closer to Vidal and Sánchez as one of Chile’s world class players. Jackson Martínez is probably the player most likely to get the big move, but it’ll be mostly because of his excellent record for Porto the last couple of years.
WD: The vanishing spray to stop players encroaching at free kicks will make a move into Europe, despite tediously baffling every commentator who sees it. I’ve been wanting this to be introduced over here since they brought it in for the Argentinian leagues a few years ago. The human transfers won’t be big surprises, it’ll be two players who have been mentioned in gossip for some time. Jackson Martìnez will fill the Falcao-shaped hole up front for Columbia very well, and will prove just as capable of scoring quite a lot of goals. He’s 27, prime “last chance for a big move” age, and this could well be the moment one of the clubs perennially linked with him takes his barrel full of goals away from Porto. Antoine Griezmann has just found out he’ll have to step up to fill Frank Ribéry’s left wing spot for France, but he’s got plenty of talent to do this and chip in with a few goals as well. At 23, whoever makes a move for him will get the best years from a superbly talented winger.
Which of the superstars will impress the most:
AC: Cristiano Ronaldo will most likely be incredible, but Portugal will fall short reasonably early on. Neymar and Messi will be pretty damn good, but they’ll go much further.
WD: Oh I’ve already said Messi will be player of the tournament, what a waste of perfectly good content. Can I interest you in yet another a rant about how Rooney will do very little except upset the balance of England’s squad?
Potential upsets:
AC: If Netherlands get knocked out in the Group Stage, that’s an upset yeah? Oh, and Iran could end up getting a point. They’ve got that whole “frustrating team” schtick going for them, but any decent result they get is going to be a surprise.
WD: Chile have more than enough potential to upset their group and put either Spain or the Netherlands out. Croatia ran Spain very close in Euro 2012, and if they met in the second round I could see a win for the Croatian diminutive, technically gifted, passing midfielders over the Spanish diminutive, technically gifted, passing midfielders. Basically, someone might beat Spain in a tournament, and that is fairly surprising.
How will England do?:
AC: If England get out of the group then I think everyone can agree it’s a job well done, pat themselves on the back, dust themselves down and be home in time to watch the final at home. There’s a nice balance in the team and there seems to be a nice spirit going on. Expectations are low, the players are fresh and exciting and honestly, it just feels right. Not one person could honestly say that England are a better side than Spain, Argentina or Germany. But in a single game, England can beat any one of them. That’s just how football works. So, England will probably reach the Second Round or the Quarter Finals. Probably. Nothing would be a surprise.
WD: A new question for this year, and one I’m already regretting even before I’ve really gathered the fact that I’ve added it. There’s enough talent in England to do really well, few players who have been tarnished by previous repeated failures, but still enough players who have been at tournaments before to not make this squad seem terrifyingly inexperienced. We’ve a manager who can get the best out of the squad – which means being hard to beat but also able to score, rather than being all out attacking with constant sublime passing. We have a decent chance of getting out of the group, and there isn’t a single side in the tournament I’d say we couldn’t beat if we played our plans perfectly and got a bit of luck. I don’t anticipate great things, but I do expect a bit of promise, and this could be a couple of weeks looked back on as fondly as 1990.
Semi finals:
AC: Brazil vs Germany, Spain vs Argentina. This about as close to just plucking four names out of a hat as one can get. Germany could easily read as Switzerland if the World Cup’s odd habit of throwing in a surprise name continues. But these are probably the four best teams going to the World Cup and they are most likely to be the four teams left at this stage.
WD: Brazil vs Germany, Colombia vs Argentina. It’s been a while since it was tested, but I think European sides not doing well in South America means the local nations will edge out a couple of sides who could run them close (France, Croatia). I’ve also found out that this could only happen if Colombia finish second in their group, but I’m too confused to change it now.
The Vuvuzela View 