Germany
Form for this: Third place (as hosts) last time, runners up in 2002. Never failed to reach the quarter finals since reunification. A poor performance would be a real shock.
Why they’ll crash out: Joachim Löw has proven himself to be a top coach in the role, but a series of rows with the German FA over his new contract earlier in the season could leave a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the squad. Luckily he now has a contract which extends beyond the quarter finals, but after the tournament he may have burnt too many bridges for a coach who already attracts negative press attention second only to whomever the English tabloids blame for ‘our lionhearted heroes’ going out this time. This is a very young squad, with only three players over 30, and inexperience could be a weakness. Up front they could be found lacking: Miroslav Klose has scored just three league goals in 25 appearances for Bayern Munich all season, Mario Gòmes scoring an only slightly more respectable 10 in his first season at the same club, Lukas Podolski appears to be lazily squandering the talent he was so hotly tipped for at the last tournament, Cacau is in decent form for Stuttgart but has only eight caps and two of his three international goals came against Malta, with Thomas Müller even less experienced and a deeper lying player in any case. The absence of captain and talisman Michael Ballack means the usual heart of the team is missing – probably bigger news for them than were, heaven forbid, Steven Gerrard, to be ruled out for England.
Why they’ll get through: Löw’s already shown by coming runner up to a phenomenal Spain in Euro 2008 that he’s a great manager, and he appears focussed on the job in hand. There doesn’t appear to be any rift between players and coach, which would be the real undoing (see France), and qualification was managed without defeat – so the arguments at the top probably won’t really impact the team. The youth of the squad doesn’t mean they haven’t done all this before: it’s easy to forget that players like Bastian Schweinsteiger, Per Mertesacker and Philipp Lahm are only 25 or 26 having each amassed well over 60 caps and starred in three tournaments already. Lahm becoming captain with Schweinsteiger his deputy raised eyebrows, but they are practically the elder statesmen of the side, and are playing fantastic football at Bayern. The new generation of players currently coming through the ranks like Thomas Müller, Mesut Özil, Arne Friedrich and Jérôme Boateng look good enough to be a dominant force in world football for some time to come, and this is a great place for them to announce themselves on that stage. Although that’s what many said about Podolski… For all the lack of goals he and Klose have suffered domestically, they scored six and seven respectively in qualifying, and were the two top scorers on home soil four years ago. They and the spine of the team come from Bayern Munich, giving a familiarity between many of the players already, useful in a side who are suffering from injuries. And it shouldn’t be forgotten that seven of the team played in the Champion’s League final, including the young Müller and Badstuber. Group D isn’t the easiest in the tournament, but Serbia, Ghana and Australia shouldn’t pose massive obstacles to overcome and they should comfortably finish top, although the difficulty could begin against England or the USA in the second round – both potentially strong sides.
Prediction: Would be a massive shock to exit in the group stage, but for all the youth and the lack of goals there’s a lot of talent and a very good manager to see them through. Topping the group could lead to a very tough game and perhaps an early exit for a side who are considered outside contenders for the main prize. If they are to crash out, it will most likely be the fault of their experienced but potentially toothless strikeforce.
The Vuvuzela View 