How The Mighty Might Fall: Germany, a Tournament Too Soon?

Germany

Form for this: Third place (as hosts) last time, runners up in 2002. Never failed to reach the quarter finals since reunification. A poor performance would be a real shock.

Why they’ll crash out: Joachim Löw has proven himself to be a top coach in the role, but a series of rows with the German FA over his new contract earlier in the season could leave a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the squad.  Luckily he now has a contract which extends beyond the quarter finals, but after the tournament he may have burnt too many bridges for a coach who already attracts negative press attention second only to whomever the English tabloids blame for ‘our lionhearted heroes’ going out this time.  This is a very young squad, with only three players over 30, and inexperience could be a weakness. Up front they could be found lacking: Miroslav Klose has scored just three league goals in 25 appearances for Bayern Munich all season, Mario Gòmes scoring an only slightly more respectable 10 in his first season at the same club, Lukas Podolski appears to be lazily squandering the talent he was so hotly tipped for at the last tournament, Cacau is in decent form for Stuttgart but has only eight caps and two of his three international goals came against Malta, with Thomas Müller even less experienced and a deeper lying player in any case. The absence of captain and talisman Michael Ballack means the usual heart of the team is missing – probably bigger news for them than were, heaven forbid, Steven Gerrard, to be ruled out for England.

Why they’ll get through: Löw’s already shown by coming runner up to a phenomenal Spain in Euro 2008 that he’s a great manager, and he appears focussed on the job in hand. There doesn’t appear to be any rift between players and coach, which would be the real undoing (see France), and qualification was managed without defeat – so the arguments at the top probably won’t really impact the team.  The youth of the squad doesn’t mean they haven’t done all this before: it’s easy to forget that players like Bastian Schweinsteiger, Per Mertesacker and Philipp Lahm are only 25 or 26 having each amassed well over 60 caps and starred in three tournaments already. Lahm becoming captain with Schweinsteiger his deputy raised eyebrows, but they are practically the elder statesmen of the side, and are playing fantastic football at Bayern. The new generation of players currently coming through the ranks like Thomas Müller, Mesut Özil, Arne Friedrich and Jérôme Boateng look good enough to be a dominant force in world football for some time to come, and this is a great place for them to announce themselves on that stage. Although that’s what many said about Podolski… For all the lack of goals he and Klose have suffered domestically, they scored six and seven respectively in qualifying, and were the two top scorers on home soil four years ago.  They and the spine of the team come from Bayern Munich, giving a familiarity between many of the players already, useful in a side who are suffering from injuries.  And it shouldn’t be forgotten that seven of the team played in the Champion’s League final, including the young Müller and Badstuber. Group D isn’t the easiest in the tournament, but Serbia, Ghana and Australia shouldn’t pose massive obstacles to overcome and they should comfortably finish top, although the difficulty could begin against England or the USA in the second round – both potentially strong sides.

Prediction: Would be a massive shock to exit in the group stage, but for all the youth and the lack of goals there’s a lot of talent and a very good manager to see them through.  Topping the group could lead to a very tough game and perhaps an early exit for a side who are considered outside contenders for the main prize.  If they are to crash out, it will most likely be the fault of their experienced but potentially toothless strikeforce.

How The Mighty Might Fall: Portugal, Group of Death’s Casualties?

Continuing our look at the big sides who might struggle this year, it’s the turn of the nation who have put England out of their last two tournaments, who have the world’s most expensive player, and who might not survive the group stage.

Portugal

Form for this: Semi-finalists in Germany, but failed to get out of the group stage in 2002.

Why they’ll crash out: There’s got to be a casualty in the tournament’s traditional Group of Death. Bookie’s second favourites Brazil would be a real shock because it’s highly unlikely, Ivory Coast might not count as a massive surprise after a weak Cup of Nations and Drogba’s fitness in doubt, but surely it would be a big headline for the world’s most expensive player to exit in the group stage. Manager Carlos Quieroz has proven himself as a great assistant, but is yet to achieve success as a first team coach in a big job. Weak in qualifying and needed a 2-0 play-off win over Bosnia and Herzegovina to reach the tournament, plus an embarrassing goalless draw against Cape Verde islands last month, they don’t look too hot at the moment. They’ve found it hard to break down defensive sides, and that might well be a strength of North Korea, as well as a more counter-attacking Brazilian side. Centre forward Liédson has just nine caps and three international goals: not a terrible return, but hardly the necessary experience to lead the line in vital games. Their best player could be their undoing: when Ronaldo decides he has to do everything himself he can nullify his own threat as well as weakening the rest of the team, as shown when he decided to take on Barcelona single handedly and came up empty handed. Deco’s poor form since moving to Chelsea means the midfield lacks its usual creative spark. Inexperience in goal could be an issue – the three ‘keepers have just 17 caps between them. While 14 belong to the decent Eduardo, first choice for over a year now, he lacks tournament experience. Injury to him would throw an unknown quantity into a very high pressure mix. And he’s costing us all a cheap laugh, having forced Quim out of the side.

Why they’ll get through: The team who would take their place, Ivory Coast, might have lost their talismanic main man. And Ronaldo’s skill could well create single handed glory and goals instead of frustrating – though it might mean he requires a more central role which he has become accustomed to at Real Madrid rather than the wide position he has taken up under his mentor Quieroz. The defence isn’t too shabby despite the injury to Jose Bosingwa, covered by his deputy at Chelsea Paulo Ferreira. Ricardo Carvalho might not have looked as solid for Chelsea this season, but still forms a strong partnership with Bruno Alves, while Real Madrid’s Pepe could always drop in having recovered from injury, though he is listed as a midfielder and could well feature in a holding role. Thrashing a decent Cameroon side might well be a good response, and a better indication of their play against quality opposition, after the embarrassing draw against Cape Verde. In Ronaldo and Simão they possess quality, if slightly mercurial, wide forwards who – on form – would be the envy of most nations.  Nani would have been another plus point, but now his injury counts against their chances.

Prediction: Much tougher call if Drogba is absent, but still look weak enough to slump out. Unless they win the group, even qualification would most likely see them play Spain in the second round, so it would take a real surprise to see them reach the quarter finals.

How The Mighty Might Fall: France, 2002 or 2006?

It might be a British thing, looking to tear down the great, but we all love it when one of the traditional big nations crashes out early on. How we tut and berate the coach who can’t see the better systems so obvious from the armchair as one of them is seen limping out at the group stage, or crashing out to the tournament’s surprise package in the first knockout.  After our look at Argentina – for whom anything could happen – The Vuvuzela View looks at the teams who aren’t looking like the world beaters they can be coming into the tournament, starting with France.

Form for this: Shock exit in 2002 when defeat in the first game against Senegal sparked an awful group stage, the holders exiting without scoring a single goal. Made up for it in 2006 by reaching the final, though began group stage unconvincingly, winning only once to scrape through.

Why they’ll crash out: In a name: Raymond Domenech. The coach’s maverick decisions have brought criticism and ridicule, even from his own players. Notoriously admitted to distrusting Scorpios and leaving them out of his squads on little other grounds, he could be laughed out of managing a pub team. The goal which took them to the finals is almost as notorious as the headbutt which closed their last tournament, but being poor in qualifying and struggling against Ireland got them to that situation in the first place.  The French lost to Austria, twice drew with Romania and only managed a 1-0 win in the Faroe Islands, although they made up for that with a home thrashing. The advent of a new 4-3-3 after Lassana Diarra’s withdrawal to get the best out of their attacking talent and dropping captain but Barcelona bench-warmer Thierry Henry brought some new hope, but the friendlies have brought loss to China, a draw with Tunisia and a late winner against Costa Rica, without impressing for the most part.

Why they’ll scrape through: On paper, they’re the best team in the group. Mind you, they were in 2002 as well. Mexico and Uruguay look like decent sides, and even South Africa have got good results in friendlies with home advantage on their side. While that might point to them providing plenty of competition for qualifying spots, it’s the sort of group where teams might take plenty of points off each other and any one could go through, so France might once again only need one decent result. It’s easy to forget that Domenech was at the helm four years ago, but with only a handful of player surviving from that squad, the experience of coming so close is largely absent, and with it any sense of a group revenge mission for the penalties defeat in the final.

Prediction: Could well go out at the first hurdle. But with their recent form, would an early exit even be that surprising?