We’d Rather Be Damocles Than Dionysius: Mexico, World Cup Wonders?

On the other side of the fence to the big sides, we’ve got the nations who no-one expects anything from. The underdogs, the David’s, the un-fancied, the Chuck Wepners if you will. Or in the case of this; Mexico. Ridiculed and abused for years, Mexico have been the butt of jokes in all variety of media sources for as long as I can remember. But whilst the sword of Damocles hangs over the favourites the Mexicans at least can just get down to business and see what happens, even enjoying themselves on the way.

The Mexicans are an interesting side with an interesting story and some interesting players. So I’ll try not to bore you as we discuss  how they aren’t that bad and at least worth looking at.

Mexico

Form for this: Knocked out in the Round of 16 to a wonder strike from Argentina’s Maxi Rodríguez in extra time saw their run end in 2006. But winning the CONCACAF Championship in 2009 and defeating their biggest rivals 5-0 in the final is a nice confidence booster (I shall gloss neatly over the fact that the US had a second string side out.)

Why they’ll get through: A lot was made of England’s recent struggle against them, Italy fell to them and they put in a very decent shift against the Dutch all of which lends itself to one thing; the Mexicans are pretty damn good. They’ve got an incredibly tactically astute manager in Javier Aguirre getting them to play very neat, tidy and aesthetically pleasing football. Anyone who witnessed the England game can testify that at times, their build up play and one touch football was superb. Excellent at holding the ball and playing around with it, they are a far cry from the underdogs who hit on the counter and hope for the best. Mexico have a few very exciting players in their side. Firstly there is Guardado, arguably their best player (who didn’t play in that England game) whom as well as being blessed with pace is also pretty decent with a ball at his feet. Carlos Vela and Dos Santos are names that familiar to Arsenal and Tottenham fans and whilst both have yet to really make their mark at club level, both are already experienced international players. They have big strong strikers to lead the line in Blanco and Franco allowing the trickier smaller players to operate around them. Marquez will be patrolling the back as part of the 3 man defence moving forward and striding into midfield. Being extremely accomplished on the ball this gives the Central Americans that extra dimension to their play that will perhaps catch more rigid teams off guard.

Mexico also have an interesting group; with the host nation, whom usually rise to the occasion regardless of their position in world football, Uruguay, a nation whom they would perhaps consider their equal on the international stage, and lastly France, perhaps the laughing stock of the big nations. It’s a group that the Mexicans can play their way out of, and should they do so there’s the prospect of the unpredictable Argentineans again in the second round or a challenge in South Korea, Nigeria or Greece. Again, all of whom Mexico can beat. In truth the system Mexico operate with will be their biggest strength. Players who are willing to adapt for their manager and play how he wants, exploring an exciting formation and approach to the game

Why they’ll crash out: Whilst we ridicule and berate France frequently at The Vuvuzela View, they could always rise to the challenge and surprise us all. Domenech could be fooling us all and simply deflecting pressure away from his team (although one suspects he is in fact just a moron). Nonetheless, the French have world class players in their ranks, Uruguay do also; in Forlan and the stupidly prolific Suarez, and South Africa no matter how poor they are, are hosting the World Cup, which will inevitably give them some lift. Mexico lack any real world class players in their side; Marquez aside and whilst the system works very well for them they struggle to get an end product.

None of their attacking players are particularly prolific and they appear to lack that cutting edge that is necessary at the top level. Franco is not renowned for having an excellent goal scoring return and Hernández (who recently joined United) is maybe too soon into his career to really judge. Dos Santos and Vela have both been touted as potential world beaters but as of yet have not shown just how good they can be. Efficient and tricky yes, but Dos Santos was the next in line to Messi at Barca, whilst Vela is one of the players on the conveyor belt of youth production that is Arsenal. Stepping up to the big stage is something they can both do but haven’t as of yet. This lack in genuine world class talent could be their undoing.

Prediction: To progress through to the second round at least and baring meeting Argentina could even get as far as the Semi finals if they can add goals to their play. That said, the quarter finals should see the end of their adventure meeting one of the bigger nations and it’s a nice target to have.

How The Mighty Might Fall: Portugal, Group of Death’s Casualties?

Continuing our look at the big sides who might struggle this year, it’s the turn of the nation who have put England out of their last two tournaments, who have the world’s most expensive player, and who might not survive the group stage.

Portugal

Form for this: Semi-finalists in Germany, but failed to get out of the group stage in 2002.

Why they’ll crash out: There’s got to be a casualty in the tournament’s traditional Group of Death. Bookie’s second favourites Brazil would be a real shock because it’s highly unlikely, Ivory Coast might not count as a massive surprise after a weak Cup of Nations and Drogba’s fitness in doubt, but surely it would be a big headline for the world’s most expensive player to exit in the group stage. Manager Carlos Quieroz has proven himself as a great assistant, but is yet to achieve success as a first team coach in a big job. Weak in qualifying and needed a 2-0 play-off win over Bosnia and Herzegovina to reach the tournament, plus an embarrassing goalless draw against Cape Verde islands last month, they don’t look too hot at the moment. They’ve found it hard to break down defensive sides, and that might well be a strength of North Korea, as well as a more counter-attacking Brazilian side. Centre forward Liédson has just nine caps and three international goals: not a terrible return, but hardly the necessary experience to lead the line in vital games. Their best player could be their undoing: when Ronaldo decides he has to do everything himself he can nullify his own threat as well as weakening the rest of the team, as shown when he decided to take on Barcelona single handedly and came up empty handed. Deco’s poor form since moving to Chelsea means the midfield lacks its usual creative spark. Inexperience in goal could be an issue – the three ‘keepers have just 17 caps between them. While 14 belong to the decent Eduardo, first choice for over a year now, he lacks tournament experience. Injury to him would throw an unknown quantity into a very high pressure mix. And he’s costing us all a cheap laugh, having forced Quim out of the side.

Why they’ll get through: The team who would take their place, Ivory Coast, might have lost their talismanic main man. And Ronaldo’s skill could well create single handed glory and goals instead of frustrating – though it might mean he requires a more central role which he has become accustomed to at Real Madrid rather than the wide position he has taken up under his mentor Quieroz. The defence isn’t too shabby despite the injury to Jose Bosingwa, covered by his deputy at Chelsea Paulo Ferreira. Ricardo Carvalho might not have looked as solid for Chelsea this season, but still forms a strong partnership with Bruno Alves, while Real Madrid’s Pepe could always drop in having recovered from injury, though he is listed as a midfielder and could well feature in a holding role. Thrashing a decent Cameroon side might well be a good response, and a better indication of their play against quality opposition, after the embarrassing draw against Cape Verde. In Ronaldo and Simão they possess quality, if slightly mercurial, wide forwards who – on form – would be the envy of most nations.  Nani would have been another plus point, but now his injury counts against their chances.

Prediction: Much tougher call if Drogba is absent, but still look weak enough to slump out. Unless they win the group, even qualification would most likely see them play Spain in the second round, so it would take a real surprise to see them reach the quarter finals.

Uneasy Lies The Head That Wears The Crown

An Argentinean side packed full of talent, with perhaps the best player in the world in their lineup, managed by an Argentinean legend. Remind me why they aren’t favourites for the World Cup?

Oh – of course, it’s the incredible struggle to qualify, the humiliating 6-1 defeat to Bolivia, the fact that the legend is commonly referred to as a madman and that Messi hasn’t really done it for his national side as he has consistently for Barca.

Argentina, third favourites behind Spain and Brazil, are the oddity at this World Cup. In a relatively straight forward group on paper (Greece, South Korea and Nigeria) the logic behind Argentina is that whilst fully capable of winning the World Cup they could just as easily go home without even progressing, such is their unpredictable nature.

 The Team

Firstly it is best to simply look at the team. Ignoring the omission of Zanetti and Cambiasso and moving on to the squad they have in place now will save time on a subject that has been done to death (as interesting as it is). The starting line-up will most probably be a 4-4-2 of sorts and has some surprise players starting as is the way these days.

Romero

Otamendi, Samuel, Demichelis, Heinze

Gutierrez, Veron, Mascherano, De Maria

Higuain, Messi

Considering the wealth of talent available to Maradona there are some obvious shocks. The inclusion of Veron will stun many who are fans of the European game and even more so the presence on the right of midfield of a player who this season featured for Newcastle in the Championship. Both of the fullbacks; Heinze and Otamendi are – well – central defenders, thus bucking the trend of attacking fullbacks. It’s a very defensive outfit, even more shocking considering the wealth of attacking talent available to Maradona; Tevez, Diego Milito, Aguero and Palermo all likely to start on the bench. Surely a 4-3-3 or a gung-ho Bayern Munich 4-2-4 style formation would accommodate all the best players and make Argentina terrifying. But no, 4-4-2, defensive and well organised is the order of the day.

Looking again at the bench it is a wonderful position to be in. Tevez, one of the best players in the world has added an excellent goal return to his game, a star for any other nation. Aguero, a rising talent and one of the most sought after players in the world and fascinatingly, married to Maradona’s daughter (which would be more relevant if he was rubbish, but he isn’t). Martin Palermo, a 36 year old Boca Juniors icon, the ideal target man. Diego Milito, perhaps the best striker in world football. An excellent goal scoring record wherever he has been, proving himself in Spain and Italy and scoring some of the most important goals for his club, netting in the Champions League final and scoring the goal to clinch the title for Inter this year alone. It’s no debate over Heskey and Bent and any nation would be blessed to have those options. Messi and Higuain will start however and few can argue really when looking at their performances this season.

The two central defenders started in the Champions League final this season (albeit against each other) so this would suggest that this is a strong area for the South American’s. However neither is blessed with pace and nippy strikers could very well be their weakness (Owen from ’98 is not available). Samuel also known as “The Wall” offers the typical robust centre back whilst Demichelis will be the more cultured defender with the ability to carry the ball and distribute. An excellent partnership on paper at least and the two supporting centre backs at fullback will provide an even more solid foundation for the side to build on.

“The New Maradona” 

Lionel “World Player of the Year” Messi is the one everyone is looking to. Is he the best ever? This is a common debate amongst pundits, who fail to understand that he is only 22 and has barely even begun. Messi is widely regarded as the best in the world and there are few arguments against. However his international form is not close to his club. Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown, and the pressure maybe gets to Messi. Maybe the set up doesn’t bring out the best in him, despite his free role being the same as at Barca.

Is this his chance to shine on the biggest stage? Or will another Argentinean snatch the glory? De Maria, Maradona touting De Maria as the nation’s next big superstar.  He has had an excellent season with Benfica at the hub of an attacking outfit and will be the most advanced of the Argentinean midfield. Clever, creative and without the pressure that is perhaps burdening those around him, De Maria could be this tournaments breakout player.

All or nothing?

So how far are Argentina going to go?! Who honestly knows. Crashing out in the first round wouldn’t be a shock, but nor would winning it. Maradona has God-like status back home and this would be his chance to become even more than immortal there. For all their talent, for all the madness, all that is left to say about the Argentines is a shrug of the shoulders and a confused expression that tells no-one anything and leaves you scratching your head more after thinking about it than before.

The Not So Magnificent Seven

The England side who faced Mexico were short of key players in Terry, Lampard, Ashley Cole and Barry, and their replacements made little case for inclusion. With seven tickets home up for grabs, The Vuvuzela View takes a long look at the contenders for each of them, and wonders who will be the unlucky recipients.

Defensive Midfield

Michael Carrick has looked poor for Manchester United in recent weeks, and has surely played his way out of a place in the 23. It’s become a cliché that Carrick is a passenger in a midfield: useful when his side dominate it but useless when they cannot, but he did nothing to disprove this view. Another largely truthful cliché is that England value players who can take the game by the scruff of the neck and throw their heart and soul into the game for the three lions rather than skilled and intelligent footballers. Carrick is neither, and a decent holding midfielder needs to be one or the other. A decent passer of the ball but one whose vision and intelligence has not significantly improved in the last few years. When the chips are down he fails to impose himself on the game, when it will almost certainly be vital for players to wrestle control back in the centre of the park against top teams during the world cup.

Tom Huddlestone, perhaps Carrick’s successor at Tottenham, did slightly better when he came on, but still frustrates. Dominating against Chelsea and Manchester City with Luka Modric in the middle towards the end of the season may well stake his case for inclusion, and his range of passing is on a par with Carrick’s. His season could be summed up by his strike against Bolton, a fantastic goal, but a shot he has tried at least twice a match all season with very little reward: his efforts have all come good at the right time. But untested at this level, the glimpses of the player he could and should be have perhaps not been enough to buy his seat on the plane.

Equally untested, though more consistent this season has been Scott Parker. A more naturally defensive, stuck-in player, Parker was a leading light in a frequently murky season for West Ham. Questions must be asked about how he would stand up to the best opposition in the world, but his performances for West Ham must surely gain him a look in against Japan if Barry will not be fit in time to start the world cup.

Moving Gerrard back into the centre of midfield could yet be an option. He has operated deeper this season for Liverpool than last, though only towards the end of the season did he perform to his own high standard. That Gerrard has played better for England than for Liverpool for the first time in years owes as much to his poor domestic form as to Capello’s deployment of him where he is most effective. The concern with dropping him back is that the 4231 England played throughout qualifying was built upon Gerrard and Rooney switching between left and central attacking roles, their interplay creating a good deal of the team’s offensive play. Moving him back wouldn’t just mean his talents were muted, it breaks up the established playing style of the whole team. However, if it is necessary, he proved what he can bring there when he calmed the midfield in the second half of the Mexico friendly.

Central Defence

John Terry’s form towards the end of the season was nothing short of poor. Whatever the well-publicised reasons, if he cannot put in a performance against Japan then his only hopes of starting against USA will be an expectation he can live up to his on-field reputation and the lack of alternatives. Chelsea have started to be built on attacking prowess rather than the defensive ability which defined Mourinho’s era, and whether a shakier defence was the cause or outcome of this switch the fact remains that Terry has looked a worse player for the last few months. The lionhearted quality the red tops praise so highly in him can be his undoing – when a game goes badly his urge to atone creates more problems. Rightly sent off for two reckless challenges on Gareth Bale in five headless minutes against Tottenham, the second demonstrated the other side of his nature: throwing himself into a poor tackle in the right back channel, leaving space open in the middle and pulling the defence out of shape, along with clattering the player. It was just one of several red cards he arguably deserved that month, along with a sickening challenge on Milner in the FA Cup semi-final. However, when fit, unless he has a complete nightmare performance, he will almost certainly start, as no one has stepped up to take his place.

Ledley King proved in the last weeks of the season that he could play three games in little over a week. But against Mexico he proved that his injury has stopped him being the fine international defender he could have been. His well taken (if unmarked) header for the opener did not distract from his poor first half at the back. When England were under less pressure in the second half he did better, though if this is his only audition perhaps he has not shown enough to merit a sport in the squad.

Jamie Carragher did a decent job for the second half, which was certainly calmer. But if he is included for his ability as reserve right back he needs a game there, which could well demonstrate how weak he has looked at full back for Liverpool in recent years. Apparently Adam Johnson has had the better of him in that position all week during training, which could say as much for Carragher’s weakness as for the winger’s strength.

Upson and Dawson remain question marks. At least one will certainly go home, but neither has a convincing case for flying to South Africa, a better season against (largely unconvincing) international experience. If neither get a half against Japan then it must be assumed that Terry, Ferdinand, King and Carragher are the defence elect.

Goalkeeper

Robert Green made a strong case for the number one jersey in the first half, the weak defence giving him more to do than he should have. Not particularly at fault for the goal, his one fumble not causing any danger, two fine saves and a decent performance must be the verdict. While many called for him to be given the gloves two years ago when his form was better and questions have been raised over him this term, he has got the nod enough to take them now. Hart is certainly a better goalkeeper, though it is hard to tell whether the better defensive organisation in the second half was the work of the youngster or the manager, and he didn’t get enough shots to prove his worth, most coming straight at his body. He looked composed though, and England keepers have made fools of themselves with less to do. Few would doubt he will be England’s number one on the way to and in Euro 2012 at the current rate. But surely few would argue his lack of experience shouldn’t rule him out of starting at this tournament.

Wing

The main remaining question is over wingers. Pace on the right is a certainty, and seems to be a straight fight between Lennon and Walcott. Lennon’s injury set him back, but if he gets a start to demonstrate his sharpness on Sunday he could show the improvements to his all round game he has made over the last two seasons. Walcott remains a raw talent, and has done for far too long. For all his industry and pace – which caused significant problems – he lacks the confidence to make chances for himself and the intelligence to make them for others. While the striker must take some blame for positioning, Walcott’s knee-jerk reaction to reaching the edge of the box is always to pass, and moving the ball to an obviously offside team mate when he had earned the right to shoot caused the breakdown of one of the first half’s best moves. Better defences and quicker fullbacks will know he offers little beyond pace and nullify him.

Formation

As for Adam Johnson, the left berth is so clearly Gerrard’s that it would take a change of formation to accommodate him. Were Rooney to become a lone striker with Gerrard behind him it would retain their understanding while putting both in positions they have proved expert in. The worry would be a lack of a holding striker which Capello so clearly desires, and is why Heskey has been a (successful) part of the team when fit. It would however provide a plan B beyond playing Crouch ahead of Rooney in the same system. A five man midfield could dominate play, with Johnson and Lennon offering tricky wingers. When Johnson has played on the left for Manchester City he has looked a great player in the making, and he didn’t appear particularly over-awed when he came on on Monday. If Joe Cole was fit and had a good season his place would be unquestioned, but frankly he hasn’t. Both deserve a chance to state a case on Sunday, as does the 4-5-1 or 4-4-1-1 England have apparently played in training this week. If it was saved for a friendly when the whole first team (the injured Barry aside) were fit to do it justice and give the fringe players a chance in the plan A formation, then Capello has proved as level headed and intelligent as hoped.

My line up for Japan: Green, Carragher (for 45), Terry, Upson/Dawson (45 each), A. Cole, Lennon/Walcott (45 each), Lampard, Parker, A. Johnson, Gerrard, Rooney (4-4-1-1).

Going home?: Carrick, Wright-Phillips, at least one of Upson/Dawson, Warnock, Darren Bent, Joe Cole.