Continuing our look at the big sides who might struggle this year, it’s the turn of the nation who have put England out of their last two tournaments, who have the world’s most expensive player, and who might not survive the group stage.
Portugal
Form for this: Semi-finalists in Germany, but failed to get out of the group stage in 2002.
Why they’ll crash out: There’s got to be a casualty in the tournament’s traditional Group of Death. Bookie’s second favourites Brazil would be a real shock because it’s highly unlikely, Ivory Coast might not count as a massive surprise after a weak Cup of Nations and Drogba’s fitness in doubt, but surely it would be a big headline for the world’s most expensive player to exit in the group stage. Manager Carlos Quieroz has proven himself as a great assistant, but is yet to achieve success as a first team coach in a big job. Weak in qualifying and needed a 2-0 play-off win over Bosnia and Herzegovina to reach the tournament, plus an embarrassing goalless draw against Cape Verde islands last month, they don’t look too hot at the moment. They’ve found it hard to break down defensive sides, and that might well be a strength of North Korea, as well as a more counter-attacking Brazilian side. Centre forward Liédson has just nine caps and three international goals: not a terrible return, but hardly the necessary experience to lead the line in vital games. Their best player could be their undoing: when Ronaldo decides he has to do everything himself he can nullify his own threat as well as weakening the rest of the team, as shown when he decided to take on Barcelona single handedly and came up empty handed. Deco’s poor form since moving to Chelsea means the midfield lacks its usual creative spark. Inexperience in goal could be an issue – the three ‘keepers have just 17 caps between them. While 14 belong to the decent Eduardo, first choice for over a year now, he lacks tournament experience. Injury to him would throw an unknown quantity into a very high pressure mix. And he’s costing us all a cheap laugh, having forced Quim out of the side.
Why they’ll get through: The team who would take their place, Ivory Coast, might have lost their talismanic main man. And Ronaldo’s skill could well create single handed glory and goals instead of frustrating – though it might mean he requires a more central role which he has become accustomed to at Real Madrid rather than the wide position he has taken up under his mentor Quieroz. The defence isn’t too shabby despite the injury to Jose Bosingwa, covered by his deputy at Chelsea Paulo Ferreira. Ricardo Carvalho might not have looked as solid for Chelsea this season, but still forms a strong partnership with Bruno Alves, while Real Madrid’s Pepe could always drop in having recovered from injury, though he is listed as a midfielder and could well feature in a holding role. Thrashing a decent Cameroon side might well be a good response, and a better indication of their play against quality opposition, after the embarrassing draw against Cape Verde. In Ronaldo and Simão they possess quality, if slightly mercurial, wide forwards who – on form – would be the envy of most nations. Nani would have been another plus point, but now his injury counts against their chances.
Prediction: Much tougher call if Drogba is absent, but still look weak enough to slump out. Unless they win the group, even qualification would most likely see them play Spain in the second round, so it would take a real surprise to see them reach the quarter finals.
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